Statistically the chances of each horse is now 55% - (How so? Well now we have gone from saying a 1 in 2 chance (50%) to a 6 in 11 chance (55%). All you need to do is divide the second figure by the total of the two figures and multiply by 100 to get the percentage chance). Mr Bookie now has a book which adds up to 110% giving him a 10% over round and guaranteeing him a profit regardless of the outcome of the race.
Dont believe me? OK consider this - if £1000 has been wagered on each horse at odds of 5-6 Mr Bookie will need to pay out 5/6 of £1000 in winnings plus return the £1000 stake. Of course he pays this from the £1000 wagered on the beaten horse and gets to keep one sixth of £1000 as his profit. Accordingly a horse with a 55% chance of winning is likely to win only 50% of the time. What this means is that because the bookmaker has an in-built edge.
WINNING MONEY BETTING ON HORSES TO WIN IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT!!
In essence you are not betting against the bookie, because he is likely to make about 1.5% on each horse from his built in advantage. You are therefore effectively betting against other punters, which means "the market". To make money in the long term you need to out perform the market in just the same way as a financial trader. I am sorry to disappoint all those services who promise to "bash the bookie", but bashing the bookie simply makes no sense. For the professional punter, the bookie is crucial because he is the one who pays you out. Not out of his own pocket of course but out of the bets he takes in from the losing punters who account for 99% of total of his customers.
But of course those of us who had been trying to do make money by backing horses with the bookmakers for the last twenty years already knew how difficult it was (and still is)! The problem is that once the betting exchanges came on the scene the losing backers figured that if they couldnt make money backing horses to win they surely must if they became layers and backed them to lose!
Seven years on they are now left scratching their heads as to why they cant make money from laying either. The answer is simple. Laying services tell their subscribers that a horse is not going to win. They lay that one horse at a price that is significantly higher than SP which of course represents a pretty accurate reflection of the horses chances of winning. That is why as a backer on Betfair, on less fancied horses you can obtain odds that are several times greater than those available from traditional bookmakers.
Such a scenario represents a massive value advantage to the backer and explains why layers struggle to make money. Just why a layer is willing to offer me a price of more than 100-1 for a 50-1 shot is quite beyond me but that certainly doesnt stop them nor does it mean the horse wont win. Plenty of big priced horses win their races!
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